Iimodeli Zezulu
Iinkcukacha-manani
Umgangatho Wamanzi
Elona Lincinane—
Phakathi—
Elona Likhulu—
Imvula
Iyonke—
Ephezulu Ngeyure—
Phakathi Ngeyure—
Iiyure Zemvula—
Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela
MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude| Imodeli | 1-6h | 7-12h | 13-24h | 25-48h | 49-72h | 73h+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble Mean | 0.0303 | 0.0326 | 0.0349 | 0.0379 | 0.0398 | 0.0447 |
| Best Match | 0.0314 | 0.0342 | 0.0390 | 0.0384 | 0.0435 | 0.0494 |
| CMA GRAPES | 0.0284 | 0.0333 | 0.0358 | 0.0435 | 0.0472 | 0.0460 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 0.0332 | 0.0371 | 0.0377 | 0.0417 | 0.0420 | 0.0481 |
| ECMWF IFS | 0.0314 | 0.0342 | 0.0390 | 0.0384 | 0.0435 | 0.0494 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0.0310 | 0.0343 | 0.0368 | 0.0359 | 0.0413 | 0.0457 |
| GFS Global | 0.0326 | 0.0348 | 0.0363 | 0.0406 | 0.0415 | 0.0480 |
| GFS Seamless | 0.0326 | 0.0348 | 0.0363 | 0.0406 | 0.0415 | 0.0480 |
| MET Norway | 0.0314 | 0.0342 | 0.0390 | 0.0384 | 0.0435 | 0.0494 |
| NCEP AI-GFS | 0.0331 | 0.0351 | 0.0381 | 0.0414 | 0.0385 | 0.0503 |
| NCEP HGEFS | 0.0325 | 0.0350 | 0.0365 | 0.0409 | 0.0422 | 0.0453 |
| UKMO Global | 0.0316 | 0.0384 | 0.0402 | 0.0417 | 0.0499 | 0.0767 |
Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-695,232 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.
Oku kubalwa njani?
Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.