Iimodeli Zezulu
Iinkcukacha-manani
Umgangatho Wamanzi
Elona Lincinane—
Phakathi—
Elona Likhulu—
Imvula
Iyonke—
Ephezulu Ngeyure—
Phakathi Ngeyure—
Iiyure Zemvula—
Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela
MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude| Imodeli | 1-6h | 7-12h | 13-24h | 25-48h | 49-72h | 73h+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble Mean | 0.0695 | 0.0697 | 0.0680 | 0.0659 | 0.0659 | 0.0665 |
| Best Match | 0.0681 | 0.0706 | 0.0681 | 0.0641 | 0.0663 | 0.0699 |
| CMA GRAPES | 0.0748 | 0.0747 | 0.0753 | 0.0710 | 0.0697 | 0.0724 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 0.0691 | 0.0684 | 0.0666 | 0.0658 | 0.0642 | 0.0687 |
| ECMWF IFS | 0.0679 | 0.0705 | 0.0679 | 0.0646 | 0.0656 | 0.0685 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0.0707 | 0.0719 | 0.0686 | 0.0675 | 0.0675 | 0.0692 |
| GFS Global | 0.0737 | 0.0726 | 0.0731 | 0.0711 | 0.0695 | 0.0714 |
| GFS Seamless | 0.0737 | 0.0726 | 0.0731 | 0.0711 | 0.0695 | 0.0714 |
| MET Norway | 0.0679 | 0.0705 | 0.0679 | 0.0646 | 0.0656 | 0.0685 |
| NCEP AI-GFS | 0.0712 | 0.0703 | 0.0683 | 0.0681 | 0.0675 | 0.0719 |
| NCEP HGEFS | 0.0699 | 0.0690 | 0.0675 | 0.0678 | 0.0676 | 0.0675 |
| UKMO Global | 0.0760 | 0.0748 | 0.0732 | 0.0729 | 0.0763 | 0.0749 |
Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-370,512 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.
Oku kubalwa njani?
Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.