Palmiet River Flood Forecast

Show history: Past forecasts

Flood threshold (m): Show

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Weather Models

Statistics

Water Level

Min—

Mean—

Max—

Rainfall

Total—

Max Hourly—

Mean Hourly—

Wet Hours—

Forecast Accuracy

MAE (m) by forecast horizon

Model	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0876	0.0840	0.0851	0.0827	0.0843	0.0960
Best Match	0.0913	0.0866	0.0887	0.0852	0.0910	0.1018
CMA GRAPES	0.0894	0.0882	0.0900	0.0892	0.0930	0.1074
ECMWF AIFS	0.0898	0.0856	0.0853	0.0845	0.0840	0.0949
ECMWF IFS	0.0912	0.0865	0.0886	0.0854	0.0906	0.1010
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0896	0.0878	0.0888	0.0880	0.0900	0.0985
GFS Global	0.0956	0.0930	0.0931	0.0901	0.0893	0.1098
GFS Seamless	0.0956	0.0930	0.0931	0.0901	0.0893	0.1098
MET Norway	0.0912	0.0865	0.0886	0.0854	0.0906	0.1010
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0921	0.0893	0.0884	0.0850	0.0847	0.1029
NCEP HGEFS	0.0877	0.0844	0.0863	0.0872	0.0878	0.0995
UKMO Global	0.0961	0.0956	0.0979	0.0932	0.0989	0.1099

Based on 685,488 prediction-observation comparisons (all-time). Updates every hour as new observations verify past predictions.

How is this calculated?

Each hour, the system generates water level predictions for the next 7 days using each weather model's rainfall forecast. Once real observations come in, the predicted values are compared against what actually happened. MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is the average difference between predicted and observed levels — lower is better. Columns group predictions by how far ahead they were made: a "1-6h" prediction is easier to get right than a "73h+" one. Values are colour-coded: green < 0.02m, yellow < 0.05m, orange < 0.1m, red ≥ 0.1m.