Mzinyathi River Isibikezelo Sesikhukhula

Bonisa umlando: Izibikezelo ezedlule

Umkhawulo wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Kusukela: Kuya:

Amamodeli Ezulu

Izibalo

Izinga Lamanzi

Okuncinane—

Okumaphakathi—

Okukhulu—

Imvula

Isamba—

Okukhulu Ngehora—

Okumaphakathi Ngehora—

Amahora Emvula—

Ukunemba Kwezibikezelo

MAE (m) ngokwebanga lesibikezelo

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0150	0.0294	0.0415	0.0508	0.0550	0.0624
Best Match	0.0145	0.0286	0.0380	0.0450	0.0480	0.0558
CMA GRAPES	0.0142	0.0273	0.0412	0.0524	0.0550	0.0511
ECMWF AIFS	0.0182	0.0371	0.0529	0.0645	0.0699	0.0831
ECMWF IFS	0.0143	0.0286	0.0390	0.0464	0.0505	0.0610
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0154	0.0307	0.0414	0.0506	0.0548	0.0664
GFS Global	0.0137	0.0262	0.0380	0.0459	0.0507	0.0558
GFS Seamless	0.0137	0.0262	0.0380	0.0459	0.0507	0.0558
MET Norway	0.0143	0.0286	0.0390	0.0464	0.0505	0.0610
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0170	0.0343	0.0499	0.0612	0.0633	0.0708
NCEP HGEFS	0.0154	0.0295	0.0415	0.0520	0.0575	0.0675
UKMO Global	0.0152	0.0289	0.0422	0.0529	0.0587	0.0688

Kususelwa kuqhathaniso oku-5,691,456 lwesibikezelo nomklamo (sikhathi sonke). Kuvuselelwa njalo ngehora njengoba imibiko emisha iqinisekisa izibikezelo ezedlule.

Lokhu kubalwa kanjani?

Njalo ngehora, uhlelo lwenza izibikezelo zezinga lamanzi zezinsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo lusebenzisa isibikezelo semvula semodeli yezulu ngayinye. Uma imibiko yangempela ifika, amanani abikezelwe aqhathaniswa nalokho okwenzeke ngempela. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) imehluko ophakathi phakathi kwezinga elibikezelwe neliboniwe — okuncane kungcono. Izinhla zihlukanisa izibikezelo ngokuthi zenziwe kudala kangakanani: isibikezelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amanani anombala: oluhlaza < 0.02m, ophuzi < 0.05m, o-orenji < 0.1m, obomvu ≥ 0.1m.