Iimodeli Zezulu
Iinkcukacha-manani
Umgangatho Wamanzi
Elona Lincinane—
Phakathi—
Elona Likhulu—
Imvula
Iyonke—
Ephezulu Ngeyure—
Phakathi Ngeyure—
Iiyure Zemvula—
Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela
MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude| Imodeli | 1-6h | 7-12h | 13-24h | 25-48h | 49-72h | 73h+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble Mean | 0.0150 | 0.0294 | 0.0415 | 0.0508 | 0.0550 | 0.0624 |
| Best Match | 0.0145 | 0.0286 | 0.0380 | 0.0450 | 0.0480 | 0.0558 |
| CMA GRAPES | 0.0142 | 0.0273 | 0.0412 | 0.0524 | 0.0550 | 0.0511 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 0.0182 | 0.0371 | 0.0529 | 0.0645 | 0.0699 | 0.0831 |
| ECMWF IFS | 0.0143 | 0.0286 | 0.0390 | 0.0464 | 0.0505 | 0.0610 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0.0154 | 0.0307 | 0.0414 | 0.0506 | 0.0548 | 0.0664 |
| GFS Global | 0.0137 | 0.0262 | 0.0380 | 0.0459 | 0.0507 | 0.0558 |
| GFS Seamless | 0.0137 | 0.0262 | 0.0380 | 0.0459 | 0.0507 | 0.0558 |
| MET Norway | 0.0143 | 0.0286 | 0.0390 | 0.0464 | 0.0505 | 0.0610 |
| NCEP AI-GFS | 0.0170 | 0.0343 | 0.0499 | 0.0612 | 0.0633 | 0.0708 |
| NCEP HGEFS | 0.0154 | 0.0295 | 0.0415 | 0.0520 | 0.0575 | 0.0675 |
| UKMO Global | 0.0152 | 0.0289 | 0.0422 | 0.0529 | 0.0587 | 0.0688 |
Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-5,691,456 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.
Oku kubalwa njani?
Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.