Mzinyathi River Ukuqikelela Kwesikhukhula

Bonisa imbali: Ukuqikelela okudlulileyo

Umda wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Ukusuka: Ukuya:

Iimodeli Zezulu

Iinkcukacha-manani

Umgangatho Wamanzi

Elona Lincinane—

Phakathi—

Elona Likhulu—

Imvula

Iyonke—

Ephezulu Ngeyure—

Phakathi Ngeyure—

Iiyure Zemvula—

Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela

MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0176	0.0325	0.0440	0.0522	0.0571	0.0653
Best Match	0.0175	0.0322	0.0426	0.0485	0.0521	0.0623
CMA GRAPES	0.0171	0.0321	0.0453	0.0571	0.0588	0.0576
ECMWF AIFS	0.0203	0.0390	0.0537	0.0649	0.0714	0.0856
ECMWF IFS	0.0173	0.0322	0.0434	0.0495	0.0538	0.0659
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0184	0.0349	0.0467	0.0535	0.0580	0.0716
GFS Global	0.0180	0.0322	0.0429	0.0499	0.0555	0.0649
GFS Seamless	0.0180	0.0322	0.0429	0.0499	0.0555	0.0649
MET Norway	0.0173	0.0322	0.0434	0.0495	0.0538	0.0659
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0192	0.0369	0.0518	0.0635	0.0689	0.0800
NCEP HGEFS	0.0176	0.0319	0.0429	0.0536	0.0600	0.0724
UKMO Global	0.0190	0.0352	0.0490	0.0598	0.0687	0.0790

Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-7,997,316 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.

Oku kubalwa njani?

Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.